NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
El Niño and Other Factors Expected to Fuel Active Season
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be one of the most active on record, according to a new outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency is forecasting a total of 17 to 25 named storms in the 2024 season, which begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. Of those, 6 to 10 are predicted to become hurricanes, and 2 to 5 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
There are two main reasons why NOAA is predicting an above-normal season. First, El Niño is expected to develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year. El Niño is a climate pattern that causes warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This can lead to more intense and frequent hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.
Second, the Atlantic Ocean is currently in a warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is a climate pattern that typically lasts for 20 to 30 years. During a warm phase of the AMO, the Atlantic Ocean is warmer than average, which can lead to more hurricanes.
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